ISIS: is arising a new titan?

"Power is my mistress. I have worked too hard at her conquest to allow anyone to take her away from me.” Napoleon Bonaparte

When someone thinks about a state and lives in a stable area of the world, he sometimes can forget that states are born and die because they are a product of human being after all. In addition nations are not created as a consequence of a treaty or of an international recognition by other countries, but they often have to fight in order to obtain its own existence. An example of that is the appearance of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in the Middle East and North Africa.

The last wars and revolutions in the Middle East have weakened the countries of the area. The USA invaded Iraq in 2003 destroying the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein that was executed in 2006. From now on Iraq became a very fragile state. More recently the Arab spring broke out and civil wars began in Libya and in Syria where, in the first case, the old regime fell and ,in the second case, the state lost control of part of its territory. The lack of power, authority and identity in these countries created an empty space that was filled by ISIS. In fact, the Islamic state has a strong ideology, a well-organized army and relevant economic resources in comparison to Iraq, Syria and Libya, and so it began its expansion.

ISIS uses various types of war at the same time in order to expand its power and stabilize its authority: it commits genocides against ethnic and religious groups, it spreads its influence towards Muslim young generations with propaganda, it uses terrorist attacks and public execution to scare people of the Middle East, but also to shock world public opinion. In addition the Islamic State can count on a good communication strategy and on a global net of members and sympathizers.

The consequence is an incredible attention towards ISIS and its expansion nowadays, but all this attention and the aggressive strategy have generated many enemies that try to stop the military and mental conquests of ISIS. Only in the next months (or years?) it will become clear what will happen in the liquid scenario of the Middle East and North Africa.

China and USA in competition for African economy

“Supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.” Sun Tzu

Africa recently has been transformed in the object of desire of many investors because in this continent there are some of the fastest economies in the World, the middle class is growing, the population is soaring steadily and there are many precious natural resources. As a consequence, foreign states try to put their influence in Africa in order to boost their economies and so it began a race for the best deal with African nations.

China was more forward-looking than the other states in this race and the Chinese interest in African economy and resources became clear in 2000 when the China-Africa forum was organized for the first time. After that it was repeated every three years. The main purpose of the forum was to increase trade: in this way China could buy the raw materials essential for its economic growth and African countries could obtain the money to build infrastructures and modernize their industrial system. Nevertheless there was even a geopolitical goal in promoting this meeting. It consisted in creating new political ties and replacing the influence of western countries with Chinese influence. In order to reach this goal Chinese authorities used also propaganda, for example Wang Hongyi, a leading specialist on Africa at the China Institute of International Studies, stated that “The Western approach of imposing its values and political system on other countries is not acceptable to China. We focus on mutual development, not promoting one country at the expense of another.” The result of this strategy was that China surpassed the USA as Africa’s single largest trading partner in 2009.

The US could not react immediately to the Chinese overtaking because the American administration had to face several challenges in that period, first of all there was the world economic crisis. However the economic situation of US has recently improved, therefore the American administration now can focus also on the African affair. In order to revitalize the economic and political ties with African countries, the US-Africa leaders summit was held on August 4-6, 2014. During the event president Obama highlighted that the US did not want only to extract natural resources, but they wanted to draw up a serious engagement that would bring reciprocal advantages. Moreover, during an interview for the Economist the president cunningly suggested that the Chinese only interest in Africa is to obtain oil and ore, unlike the USA that wants to create enterprises. He said also that the infrastructures realized with Chinese money are not supposed to be useful only to bring raw material to China, but they should be useful for a long-term economic growth in the interest of African people.

In conclusion it is clear that an economic clash is now happening and the prize for the winner is to manage and benefit from the African economic growth. Nevertheless there are not winners in this clash yet and there could be some surprises: for example the participation of a new actor. Maybe the EU?

References:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/02/world/asia/02cnd-china.html?_r=1&ref=asia&oref=slogin&module=Search&mabReward=relbias%3As%2C{%222%22%3A%22RI%3A12%22}

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/28/opinion/beijing-a-boon-for-africa.html?module=Search&mabReward=relbias%3As%2C{%222%22%3A%22RI%3A12%22}

http://www.whitehouse.gov/us-africa-leaders-summit

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/08/barack-obama-talks-economist

North Korea: guilty or not?

"Our country has no connection with these hackers," said the political adviser of North Korea to the UN, Kim Song, commenting on the statements of Obama’s administration that the cyberattack that hit Sony last December was the work of the Secret Services of Pyongyang. In fact, the FBI investigation had found, at first, that the Korean government was responsible for the cyber-attack to Sony Pictures of Los Angeles. A cyber-attack is an "Unacceptable behavior for a State. No dictator can impose censorship in the US”, American President declared indignant. The hackers hit the major to prevent the release of the film "The Interview" with James Franco, which makes a fool of Pyongyang’s leader, Kim Jong-un. President Obama then said: ”We will respond in a proportionate manner to the cyber-attack against Sony”, conducted according to the FBI by North Korea, ”in a proportionate manner and within the time that we decide, also considering to put the regime of Pyongyang in the list of countries that support international terrorism”. The reaction of North Korea was vehement and laconic, Kim Jong-un immediately distanced himself from the attack, although described the decision of Sony to withdraw the film as "very wise and forward-looking”.

In the following days, there was a massive cyber-attack against the Korean internet network that led to the blackout of the entire country for 9 hours (maybe the American reaction?). 

The affair still has reserved a new twist just few days ago, in fact, not only the film was shown in cinemas all over the world, but many cyber-security agencies that are investigating the case claim that the real responsible of the attack could be a former employee of Sony laid off four months ago, and not North Korea. This hypothesis has been subjected to the FBI that is continuing to carry out the investigation, although the early evidences do not seem to be strong, in fact, the American agency said: “These statements are based on inner intelligence, other national agencies and foreign partners of the private sector. There is no credible information to suggest that other individuals are responsible”. Therefore, we have to wait for the end of the investigation, and figure out if we are faced with a cyber-clash of Titans or to an individual who wants to take revenge with his former employer for being fired.

References:
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/12/27/tech/north-korea-expert-doubts-about-hack/http://variety.com/2014/biz/news/security-experts-doubt-north-korea-role-in-sony-hack-attack-1201389525/
http://www.corriere.it/opinioni/14_dicembre_31/attacco-hacker-sony-l-imbarazzo-dell-fbi-f45b551e-90c5-11e4-a341-1b24c965fa88.shtml
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/30/north-korea-hackers-sony-pictures-cyber-attack