The crucial importance of the Caucasus

The Caucasus is a mountainous area in the border between Europe and Asia and it is historically important in the political sphere because it is situated in a strategic location between two continents, the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, and in the economy sphere because of its important natural resources. It has always been a hot zone, but the Soviet dissolution resulted in the origin of numerous new actors, both independent nations and separatist regions: the three southern countries (Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan) are republics but the northern regions are still part of Russian Federation .

The geopolitical situation in the last twenty years has been totally unstable, there were continuing clashes for reasons of borders, ethnic problems, independence, control of economic resource: it is one of the most problematic areas in the world. The fall of the USSR fueled the interest of regional powers, such as Turkey, Iran and the newborn Russia. The competition intensified also because the small republics still under Russian control were, and still are, very active and belligerent and their will of independence is rooted (e.g. the famous Chechnya).
By the time, Russian influence alienated any ambitions of Iran or Turkey but the region has seen the growing of the American interest: the energy richness of the Caucasus convinced the US to intensify relations with the states of the area, from several points of view. In these terms it is possible to highlight the American pressure on Azerbaijan and Georgia, (territories who were unsatisfied by the Russian presence) to bring them close to the Western Civilization’s sphere. The positive relationship between these actors allowed the creation of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline in 2006, an engineering work that represents an enormous resource for the Europe and the US, taking oil from the Caspian Sea and Central Asia and bringing it to Turkey and then to the West. The pipeline guarantees a high daily amount of oil and does not pass through the territories under Russian control, subtracting large portions of crude oil and vast crucial territories to Moscow.
Two years later, in 2008, the Caucasus is back under the international light because of the outbreak of the war between Russia and Georgia for the control of the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia: Moscow cleverly exploited regional tensions to reaffirm its presence in the area and to emphasize the importance of controlling those territories. 

The American response was not a military intervention in support of Georgia, its ally, because this could result in a war against Russia, but rather an increase in funding to Tbilisi and Baku’s governments, permitting them to grow economically and remain a stable ally in the area: it is, therefore, a battle fought thanks to the alliances system with the small and weak Caucasian republics.
Since the 2008 war, the area has not recorded clashes that have interested the international press and the recent crisis in Ukraine moved away from the area the attentions and the Russian hegemonic efforts. However, it does not mean the situation is locked, in fact, the Caucasus remains a crucial region where international policies of various countries intertwine in a clash on several levels: the support and influence on Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and neighboring regions remain a silent but significant battlefield between Russia, US, Europe.

 
Useful links:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2014/11/georgian-politics

http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/georgia/index.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/14/world/europe/14oil.html?_r=0

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/SoleOnLine4/Economia%20e%20Lavoro/2008/08/energia-rotte-chiave-russia-europa.pdf?cmd%3Dart

Ukrainian situation: the sanctions

One of the major problems in the world in 2014 is undoubtedly the Ukrainian crisis and the current civil war in the country. The issue has become the battleground for EU, Russia and US in many ways, one of which is definitely the imposition of economic and restrictive sanctions. Those are, in fact, an alternative approach to military confrontation to win a clash, because the state who is hit, it is forced to find alternative solutions to the health of its economy.
Following the annexation of the Crimea in March 2014, the European Union and the United States decided to impose the travel bans to many leading figures of Russia, both political and economic. It was only the first step in a long series of measures to force Russia to withdraw from Ukraine’s affairs: in late April there was a second round of sanction that hit a growing number of officers, banks and Russian companies. The EU pointed out that the sanctions are not punitive but designed  to bring a change in policy in the target country. During the summer, many countries (Australia, Canada, Japan, Switzerland, Norway) joined the group, enlarging the front which was in contrast with Moscow.
These initiatives were clearly aimed to stop Russia from interfering with Ukrainian situation, forcing to abandon the separatist movement and withdraw its troops: Putin's government responded with great vehemence, adopting some counter-sanctions. It has been particularly important the ban about the importation of agricultural products and food, a very important market for the EU, whose exports of food in Russia are estimated to be 10% of total.[1]
While the situation in Ukraine worsened, reaching the civil war, the measures increased with a third round of sanctions, from July to September: the EU and the US, followed for the first time by Kiev’s government, decided to strike the heart of Russian economy, applying restrictions in the financial sector, weapons production and, especially, energy. This phase was particularly delicate because it represented an escalation that touched the most powerful sectors of Russia, the ones that Moscow normally uses as counter-move to create problems to Europe. In these days, the American government is discussing the possibility of new sanctions, more severe than the previous.
So far, the “war of sanctions” is a fight that has no winners, but there are already significant economic repercussions both on Russia and on Europe. The former are more and more isolated from the rest of the world and they have to face the costs of sanctions and war, the latter are forced to find new energy supplies, new markets for the export of certain goods and, not least, they have to stay united in a historical moment of economic and political crisis that requires strong decisions.

Useful links:

http://europa.eu/newsroom/highlights/special-coverage/eu_sanctions/index_en.htm

http://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-u-s-significantly-expand-sanctions-against-russian-economy-1406666111

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28400218

http://www.state.gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/ukrainerussia/

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[1] Data from Europa.eu

Energy as a key factor in the Ukrainian economic clash

“Who controls the food supply controls the people; who controls the energy can control whole continents; who controls money can control the world.”
Henry Kissinger

The civil war in Ukraine clearly has become one of the most controversial International affairs, not only for the victims and the clash between USA, EU and Russia, but also for the strategic position of Ukraine. In fact the pipeline that brings gas from Russia to Europe passes through the Ukrainian territory and so the war has been transformed also in an energy clash.

It is useful to note that Russian gas is essential for Ukraine and European countries have a significant dependence on it: EU gets 24% of its gas from Russia and a half of that comes from Ukrainian pipeline[1]. This explains the reason why Russia was so self confident at the beginning of the conflict and EU simultaneously was not so determined to apply economic sanctions to Russia. Nevertheless a help to Europe came from the USA that offered to cover the amount of gas that could be cut down by Russia. This large amount of American gas was disposable thanks to the fracking technique that permits to extract natural gas that was unreachable in the past. The answer of Russia consisted in signing a historical International agreement: a 400$ billion gas deal with China. In this way Russia has enforced its geopolitical position and has found an alternative to European market.

On November 28 2014 OPEC decided not to cut production

At this point the energy clash seemed to be concluded with no winners, but Russia surprisingly started having bigger problems than EU in this field. The price of natural gas and oil recently is going down and the producing countries have decided not to decrease the extraction of natural resources in order to raise prices. As a consequence of this decision, nations that import gas and oil, like European countries and China, took advantage of the situation. On the contrary the Russian economic condition is weakening because of the lower prices of gas and oil, the sanctions imposed by western countries and the high military expenses: the ruble is depreciating dramatically and inflation rate is accelerating.

From what was said, it seems that Russia is losing the energy clash in the context of Ukrainian war. However it is fundamental to remind the determination of Putin and the frailty of EU that is under pressure for the economic crisis and for the anti-European feeling that is growing among the citizens of member states.

References:

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21600111-reducing-europes-dependence-russian-gas-possiblebut-it-will-take-time-money-and-sustained

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/22/world/asia/china-russia-gas-deal.html?module=Search&mabReward=relbias%3Aw%2C{%222%22%3A%22RI%3A16%22}

http://ricerca.repubblica.it/repubblica/archivio/repubblica/2014/12/02/putin-alla-guerra-dellenergia31.html?ref=search

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/notizie/2014-12-04/rublo-picchiata-senza-freni-063742.shtml?uuid=AB3b0uLC

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[1] 2012 data by Eurogas

Russia's "Stealth" Invasion of Ukraine

From February 2014, the Kremlin has begun to send “unmarked” troops of the Russian army in the territory of the Ukrainian state; moreover, Russia has sent hundreds of trucks loaded with military equipments to provide logistical support to the Ukrainian insurgents in Crimea and in other areas of the country. Therefore, experts of international relations described this operation as a Russian invisible invasion, though the troops belonged to the Armed Forces of Moscow. If the Kremlin had publicly admitted that the Russian soldiers in Ukraine had been under its command, it would appear as an act of war, punishable by international law. Therefore, starting from the revolution of February 2014, these troops of “not identified” nationality have taken control of some regions of the Ukrainian state, first of all the Crimea, then annexed by Russia through a popular referendum. Only after the annexation, Russian President Putin revealed to the international press that some groups of special troops were sent to the region to allow the referendum.

The most serious military incident involving these “undercover” troops was the shooting down of the flight MH 17 of Malaysia Airlines in the Ukrainian sky. What happened, officially, was not attributed to the direct responsibility of the troops of any state, even though international investigations have found that the explosion of the airplane with 298 people on board was caused by a surface to air missiles made in Russia. Therefore, Kiev and the Western states have blamed the “undercover” troops of Moscow, while the Kremlin has blamed the Ukrainian air forces.

Doubtless, this is a new kind of war, played by states in an indirect way to weaken the opponent "Titan".

References: 

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21615605-now-willing-use-russian-troops-more-or-less-openly-eastern-ukraine-vladimir-putin-has

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/russias-stealth-invasion-of-ukraine-only-washingtons-war-party-can-see-it/

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/17/crimea-referendum-sham-display-democracy-ukraine

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/18/world/europe/ukraine-malaysia-plane-questions/

Putin and Crimea after the referendum

Vladimir Putin addressed State Duma deputies, Federation Council members, heads of Russian regions and civil society representatives in the Kremlin. PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA VLADIMIR PUTIN: Federation Council members, State Duma deputies, good afternoon.  Representatives of the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol are here among us, citizens of Russia, residents of Crimea and Sevastopol.

Dear friends, we have gathered here today in connection with an issue that is of vital, historic significance to all of us. A referendum was held in Crimea on March 16 in full compliance with democratic procedures and international norms. HERE PUTIN IMMEDIATELY BEGINS MAKING REFERENCE TO THEMES SUCH AS HISTORY AND INTERNATIONAL LAW. IN FACT, MOST PART OF HIS SPEECH WILL FOCUS ON THESE AREAS.

…..........

Everything in Crimea speaks of our shared history and pride. This is the location of ancient Khersones, where Prince Vladimir was baptised. His spiritual feat of adopting Orthodoxy predetermined the overall basis of the culture, civilisation and human values that unite the peoples of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. The graves of Russian soldiers whose bravery brought Crimea into the Russian empire are also in Crimea. This is also Sevastopol – a legendary city with an outstanding history, a fortress that serves as the birthplace of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Crimea is Balaklava and Kerch, Malakhov Kurgan and Sapun Ridge. Each one of these places is dear to our hearts, symbolising Russian military glory and outstanding valour.

…...........

Colleagues,

In people’s hearts and minds, Crimea has always been an inseparable part of Russia. This firm conviction is based on truth and justice and was passed from generation to generation, over time, under any circumstances, despite all the dramatic changes our country went through during the entire 20^th century. PRESIDENT PUTIN TRIES TO APPEAL TO THE COMMON PAST OF ENTIRE RUSSIAN GENERATIONS AND SHOWS HOW CRIMEA HAS ALWAYS BEEN IN THE HEART OF RUSSIA, STIMULATING AN EMOTIONAL FEEDBACK IN HIS PUBLIC.

After the revolution, the Bolsheviks, for a number of reasons – may God judge them – added large sections of the historical South of Russia to the Republic of Ukraine. This was done with no consideration for the ethnic make-up of the population, and today these areas form the southeast of Ukraine. Then, in 1954, a decision was made to transfer Crimean Region to Ukraine, along with Sevastopol, despite the fact that it was a federal city. This was the personal initiative of the Communist Party head Nikita Khrushchev. What stood behind this decision of his – a desire to win the support of the Ukrainian political establishment or to atone for the mass repressions of the 1930’s in Ukraine – is for historians to figure out. PUTIN WANTS TO DEMONSTRATE THAT THE TRANSFER OF CRIMEA WAS A HISTORIC ACT THAT VIOLATED THE NORMS OF INTERNATIONAL LAW AND RUSSIA IS JUST HELPING THIS REGION TO GO BACK TO THE RUSSIAN STATE. THEREFORE, HIS GOAL IS TO SHOW THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY THAT HE IS WORKING TO RESTORE THE INTERNATIONAL ORDER VIOLATED DECADES AGO.

…............

Time and time again attempts were made to deprive Russians of their historical memory, even of their language and to subject them to forced assimilation. Moreover, Russians, just as other citizens of Ukraine are suffering from the constant political and state crisis that has been rocking the country for over 20 years.....The new so-called authorities began by introducing a draft law to revise the language policy, which was a direct infringement on the rights of ethnic minorities. However, they were immediately ‘disciplined’ by the foreign sponsors of these so-called politicians....There is no legitimate executive authority in Ukraine now, nobody to talk to. THE KREMLIN LEADER REFERS TO THE RUSSIAN MINORITY IN UKRAINE AND STANDS AS THEIR DEFENDER FROM THE OLD AND THE NEW POLICY OF THE UKRAINIAN AUTHORITIES. IN PARTICULAR, HE TRIES TO BELITTLE THE POLITICIANS OF THE "NEW UKRAINE" CLAIMING THAT THEY ARE MOVED BY THEIR WESTERN SPONSORS.

…...........

The residents of Crimea and Sevastopol turned to Russia for help in defending their rights and lives, in preventing the events that were unfolding and are still underway in Kiev, Donetsk, Kharkov and other Ukrainian cities....We could not abandon Crimea and its residents in distress. This would have been betrayal on our part. PUTIN WANTS TO PROVE AGAIN THAT WHAT RUSSIA IS DOING IS A DUTY TO THE RUSSIANS THAT LIVE IN UKRAINE.

…..............

However, what do we hear from our colleagues in Western Europe and North America? They say we are violating norms of international law.  Firstly, it’s a good thing that they at least remember that there exists such a thing as international law – better late than never...Secondly, and most importantly – what exactly are we violating? THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENT REITERATED THAT RUSSIA IS NOT VIOLATING INTERNATIONAL LAW, BUT THE WESTERN STATES. SO HE WANTS TO PROVE THAT HE IS ACTING IN FULL INTERNATIONAL LEGALITY.

….............

As it declared independence and decided to hold a referendum, the Supreme Council of Crimea referred to the United Nations Charter, which speaks of the right of nations to self-determination. Incidentally, I would like to remind you that when Ukraine seceded from the USSR it did exactly the same thing, almost word for word. Ukraine used this right, yet the residents of Crimea are denied it.  Why is that?...Moreover, the Crimean authorities referred to the well-known Kosovo precedent – a precedent our western colleagues created with their own hands in a very similar situation, when they agreed that the unilateral separation of Kosovo from Serbia, exactly what Crimea is doing now. PUTIN REAFFIRMS THAT THE SECESSION OF THE CRIMEA WAS MADE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE RULES OF INTERNATIONAL LAW, AS HAPPENED IN THE CASE OF KOSOVO, WHEN INDEPENDENCE WAS SUPPORTED BY THE WEST. HE STANDS AGAIN AS THE CHAMPION OF INTERNATIONAL LEGALITY.

….........

Like a mirror, the situation in Ukraine reflects what is going on and what has been happening in the world over the past several decades. After the dissolution of bipolarity on the planet, we no longer have stability. Key international institutions are not getting any stronger; on the contrary, in many cases, they are sadly degrading. Our western partners, led by the United States of America, prefer not to be guided by international law in their practical policies, but by the rule of the gun. IN THIS PART OF THE SPEECH, PUTIN CRITICIZES WESTERN STATES TO PURSUE WAR POLICIES, WHILE RUSSIA IS PURSUING A POLICY OF INTERNATIONAL LEGALITY. IN DOING SO, HE TRIES TO PROVOKE A STRONG REACTION TO HIS WORDS.

…..............

Now this is a matter for Russia’s own political decision, and any decision here can be based only on the people’s will, because the people is the ultimate source of all authority. THE RUSSIAN LEADER WANTS TO SHOW HOW ALL HIS POWERS DERIVE FROM THE PEOPLE AND THAT HIS DECISION IS TAKEN FOR THE GOOD OF THE PEOPLE.

…..........

Members of the Federation Council, deputies of the State Duma, citizens of Russia, residents of Crimea and Sevastopol, today, in accordance with the people’s will, I submit to the Federal Assembly a request to consider a Constitutional Law on the creation of two new constituent entities within the Russian Federation: the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, and to ratify the treaty on admitting to the Russian Federation Crimea and Sevastopol, which is already ready for signing. I stand assured of your support.

March 18, 2014, The Kremlin, Moscow